Revealed: How footballers' birthdays impact their chances of becoming professionals

Casino.co.uk researched the dates of birth of every player in the Premier League and Championship who was born in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and found that almost 60% of footballers in the top two tiers of the English game were born early in their school year.

This means that children born from September to November are almost twice as likely to make it as professional players than classmates born between June and August.

We were testing a theory proposed by acclaimed author Malcolm Gladwell called Relative Age Effect. This theory believes that children born earlier in the school year are singled out for more attention when it comes to sports.

Those born in the second half of the school year, and particularly in the last quarter, are at a disadvantage. This is due to being less developed, smaller and having a lack of coordination when they begin their schooling. Therefore, it becomes much harder for them to break through into professional sports.

Harry Kane was born on 28th July, so well into the last quarter of the school year and a notable exception to this theory. He may well have had to overcome more than other professional footballers due to being physically, emotionally and cognitively less developed than other children during his development.

The news may come as a surprise to some parents who believe talent and coaching to be the most important factors when it comes to making it in sport.

Key findings:

• 58% of players in the top two tiers were born in the first half of the school year - 373 of a total of 644 footballers.

• Only 42% of players (271) were born in the last half of the year with just 18% (114) born in the final quarter of June, July and August.

• In the Premier League, 122 players were born in the first half of the school year while just 86 were born in the second half.

• When combining both leagues, more than 100 extra professional footballers were born in the first half of the school year than the second half.

Players born north of the border in Scotland were not included in the study as the school year differs.

Relative Age Effect

The relative age effect is a phenomenon in which children born in, or close to, a critical age cut-off period may have an advantage in both athletic and academic endeavours.

An earlier birth in the academic year is typically associated with increased physical ability. This is confirmed with our research, which shows a high trend of professional footballers born in the first half of the academic year.

In his best-selling book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell looked at the Canadian ice hockey league, concluding that players born early in the school year were much more likely to make it as professionals.

The explanation proposed by Malcolm Gladwell for over-representation of older players in sports is simple. From a very young age, older children are picked out for their bigger size and better coordination and this, in turn, allows them to grow in confidence.

Our new study shows that the same is true of English football, with over 100 extra players in the top two tiers born in the first half of their school years.

Premier League

In the Premier League, 122 players were born in the first half of the school year while just 86 were born in the second half.

The gulf between those born early in the year and those born late is even more remarkable when comparing quarters, with 61 Premier League stars born in the first quarter of the school year from 1 September to 30 November, compared to only 34 who were born in the final three months of the year from 1 June to 31 August.

The trend is greater in some Premier League clubs, with 84% of Manchester United’s British (excl. Scotland) first-team players born in the first half of the school year.

Championship

Our researchers decided to widen their sample size by including Championship players as there are more home nation born players in the second tier.

They found 251 Championship players were born in the first half of the school year compared to only 185 who were born in the second half.

The differences remained when the researchers broke the year down into quarters, with 121 born in September to November compared to only 80 born in June to August.

Combining both leagues more than 100 extra professional footballers were born in the first half of the school year than the second half.

Players born early in the school year include Leeds United striker Patrick Bamford whose birthdate of 5 September would’ve made him one of the oldest in his year.

Other top stars such as Marcus Rashford, born in October, Raheem Sterling, born in December, and Jamie Vardy, born January, were also in the older half of their school years.

Of course, there are always notable exceptions, such as the Premier League’s top scorer Harry Kane, born in July.

Data

There are 644 Footballers educated in England, Wales and Northern Ireland currently playing in the Premier League or Championship

Month Born	Premier League	Championship	Total	Percent of total
September	18	55	73	11%
October	26	41	67	10%
November	17	25	42	7%
December	17	45	62	10%
January	25	52	77	12%
February	19	33	52	8%
March	21	45	66	10%
April	14	33	47	7%
May	17	27	44	7%
June	8	21	29	4%
July	13	36	49	8%
August	13	23	36	6%
Quarter 1	61	121	182	28%
Quarter 2	61	130	191	30%
Quarter 3	52	105	157	24%
Quarter 4	34	80	114	18%

Methodology:

Casino.co.uk scraped data from the first-team squad lists on every club’s website. We then plotted the data in a table to identify any trends and test the relative age effect theory.

We then split the data into quarters to emphasise that there are more professional footballers born earlier in the school than those born later on in the academic year.

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